What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
Anthropic Overtakes SpaceX in 2026 IPO Race as Traders Rotate
The largest-IPO wager flipped hands overnight, with SpaceX's odds down 25 points and Anthropic's up 13, while transfer-market chaos and a fading blockbuster reshuffled expectations elsewhere.
The market's pick for 2026's biggest IPO flipped overnight: Anthropic surged to 49% (+13 pts/24h, +5 pts/7d) while SpaceX collapsed to 40% (-25 pts/24h, -15 pts/7d) on $32,863 traded. Football repriced just as violently — Enzo Fernandez's odds of staying at Chelsea fell to 12% (-18 pts/24h, -40 pts/7d) as Manchester City rose to 85% (+18 pts/24h, +38 pts/7d) to land him. In Hollywood, Spider-Man: Brand New Day's shot at a $900m domestic haul held near-dead at 8% (-4 pts/24h, -45 pts/7d), while MrBeast's next upload surged toward a narrower 60-70M view band, now 86% (+19 pts/24h, +60 pts/7d). Geopolitically, the US-Iran ceasefire's odds of holding through September 30 ticked to 84% (+10 pts/24h), and cartel-arrest markets rallied hard, with Juan Reyes Mejía González's 2026 arrest odds climbing to 72% (+19 pts/24h, +22 pts/7d).
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the SC Republican Senate special primary runoff by less than 5%?
42%→95%24h
$44,051 traded · 24h
Culture
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?
26%→86%7d
$9,182 traded · 24h
Culture
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?
52%→7.8%7d
$38,664 traded · 24h
Culture
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be less than 900m by August 31?
50%→92%7d
$6,904 traded · 24h
Sports
Will Enzo Fernandez stay at Chelsea?
52%→12%7d
$13,038 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?
56%→84%7d
$171,718 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
64%→40%24h
$32,863 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Will Juan Reyes Mejía González be arrested in 2026?
50%→72%7d
$33,099 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Iran contracts drifted further toward calm: the ceasefire holding through September 30 rose to 84% (+10 pts/24h, +27 pts/7d) on over $1m traded, and an end to the Iranian blockade by October 31 climbed to 60% (+13 pts/24h). Cartel-arrest markets moved sharply — Juan Reyes Mejía González's odds hit 72% (+19 pts/24h, +22 pts/7d) and Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar's rose to 60% (+22 pts/24h) — even as Moscow air-traffic suspension odds for August 31 fell to 22% (-23 pts/24h).
South Carolina's Senate runoff swung to near-certainty as its resolution deadline arrived: Graham Nordone winning by under 5% now prices at 95%, up 53 points on the day. Elsewhere, traders sharply raised odds Trump names a new Press Secretary by September 11 to 60% (+28 pts/24h), while confidence he'll publicly insult someone today held near-lock at 94% (+5 pts/24h).
The largest-2026-IPO wager changed hands: Anthropic climbed to 49% (+13 pts/24h, +5 pts/7d) while SpaceX collapsed to 40% (-25 pts/24h, -15 pts/7d) on $32,863 traded. STRC's path to $100 by December 31 rose to 80% (+2 pts/24h, +18 pts/7d), and Variational's FDV clearing $1B a day after launch climbed to 54% (+8 pts/24h, +24 pts/7d).
OpenAI's Astra slipped later on the calendar: September 15 odds rose to 50% (+6 pts/24h, +8 pts/7d) as August 31 collapsed to 2%. Anthropic's grip on 'best AI model' stayed near-total for August at 99% and led September at 90%, while Ox Alpha's ownership stayed pinned on Z.ai at 94% (-2 pts/24h).
Chelsea's hold on Enzo Fernandez evaporated as traders cut his staying odds to 12% (-18 pts/24h, -40 pts/7d) while Manchester City surged to 85% (+18 pts/24h, +38 pts/7d) to sign him. Julian Alvarez markets swung toward Atletico Madrid, up to 70% (+16 pts/24h). In tennis, Carlos Alcaraz reclaimed US Open favorite status at 30% (+10 pts/7d) ahead of Zverev's 21%.
MrBeast's next video surged toward a narrower hit: 60-70 million week-one views now prices at 86% (+19 pts/24h, +60 pts/7d), draining the 70-80M band to 12%. Spider-Man: Brand New Day's underperformance narrative held firm, with sub-$900m domestic gross odds at 92% (+4 pts/24h, +43 pts/7d). GTA 6's 'Extended Look' running 25+ minutes jumped to 81% (+34 pts/24h) as its reveal nears.
Markets are more certain Trump insults someone today (94%) than that the Fed cuts rates at all this year (86% for zero) — a tidy summary of 2026 so far.
The weekly digest
The week’s biggest probability moves, in one email every Sunday. Free.