Politics & Elections
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 23, 2026?
89%→
4.3%
7d
Overall odds that any nation joins the pact by October 31 collapsed to 10%, down 42 points in a day — not because the deal is dying, but because traders swapped their favorite signatory, sending Lebanon to 51% and Sudan down to 9%.
Markets rewrote the guest list for the Mecca Agreement Thursday: the chance any country signs by October 31 fell to just 10%, down 42 points on the day, while the December 31 deadline eased to 28% (-26 points). The reshuffle was violent underneath — Lebanon's odds of joining by year-end rocketed to 51% (+44 points), Qatar to 43% (+26), even as Sudan cratered to 9% (-59) and Iraq to 8% (-44). Kanye West's prospective Russia performance kept fading too, down to 20% (-10 points on the day, -42 on the week). Elsewhere, Washington's own calendar slipped: traders now put a new White House Press Secretary announcement at just 3% for August 28 (-16), pushing weight toward September 30 (56%). And on the pitch, Enzo Fernandez's transfer odds swung hard toward Chelsea, up 26 points to 38%, as Manchester City slid 23 points to 62%.
The Mecca Agreement's signatory odds scrambled hardest: Lebanon surged to 51% (+44 points) and Qatar to 43% (+26) for a December 31 join, while Sudan collapsed to 9% (-59) and Iraq to 8% (-44). The overall October 31 chance fell to 10% (-42). Kanye West's Russia performance bet slid to 20% (-10 on the day, -42 on the week). Russia's capture of all Kostyantynivka by December 31 eased to 48% (-10), and the US-Iran ceasefire held firm near-term at 96% through August 31 (+1).
Traders pushed back their timeline for a new White House Press Secretary: the August 28 announcement chance fell to 3% (-16), September 4 to 10% (-30), while September 30 rose to 56% (-18, still the frontrunner). In Brazil's presidential race, Augusto Cury's third-place odds climbed to 14% (+9) as Renan Santos slipped to 45% (-6). The Clarity Act's odds of 2026 passage sit at 14% (-8 on the week). Trump's daily insult market keeps hitting near-certainty as each date's close arrives — more calendar than character.
Anticipation is building for the next Mythos-Class model: an August 31 release jumped to 42% (+20 on the day), with September 15 now priced at 86% (+6) and September 30 at 92%. Oura's IPO valuation re-rated upward too, with $20B+ outcomes up to 27% (+12) and the $17.5B-$20B band up to 26% (+12). Anthropic extended its lead as 2026's largest IPO favorite, now 59% (+10) against SpaceX's 41%. A 2026 Fed rate hike now sits at 56% (+7 on the week).
A pre-2027 foldable iPhone now looks near-certain at 97% (+9 on the day). In the AI model race, Anthropic holds a commanding 68% lead for best model by year-end (down 3 points on the day) over OpenAI's rising 11% (+4) and Google's 10%. For the nearer September 30 window, Anthropic sits at 90%, with OpenAI and Google fighting over the scraps at 3% and 4% respectively.
Transfer-market drama dominated: Enzo Fernandez's odds to join Manchester City slid 23 points to 62% as Chelsea's chances jumped 26 points to 38%. Julian Alvarez's Atletico Madrid stay fell to 54% (-16) while Arsenal's bid rose to 29% (+15). Carlos Alcaraz's U.S. Open participation held at a commanding 94%, and he leads the men's title market at 28% ahead of Alexander Zverev's 22%. Kimi Antonelli remains the runaway F1 title favorite at 75%.
MrBeast's next video is now favored for 60-70 million first-week views at 76%, though that's down 10 points as the 70-80 million band gained 13 to reach 25%. 'Spider-Man: Brand New Day' inched toward its 800-900m domestic gross target (96%, +4) as August's close approaches. GTA 6's 'Extended Look' odds firmed toward the shorter bands (20+ minutes at 98%) with the reveal roughly 18 hours out. The next James Bond remains unsettled, with Jack Lowden the nominal favorite at just 23% (-5).
Nothing moves markets like an RSVP — whether from a nation-state or a rapper contemplating Red Square.
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