What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
Brazil's Cury Craters to 2% While Third Place Fight Rages On
Markets have priced Augusto Cury out of Brazil's presidency at 2%, down 32 points this week, even as he still leads the fight for third place at 50%. Elsewhere, traders nudge a Trump-Putin summit toward China and warm to an Israel-Lebanon meeting.
Brazil's presidential race has scrambled twice over. Augusto Cury, tipped for a serious shot at the presidency a week ago, is now priced at just 2% to win (-32 points on the week), even as he still leads the fight for third place at 50%, a lead that narrowed 4 points overnight as Renan Santos surged 15 points to 32%. Geopolitics shifted in parallel: markets now give a Trump-Putin summit in China a 54% chance (+13 points on the day), pushing the no-meeting scenario down 9 points to 40%, while an Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15 jumped 35 points overnight to 58%. On rates, traders extended their week-long pivot toward a September Fed hike, now 60% (+4 points on the day, +28 on the week) against 38% for no change. AI markets, by contrast, are mostly clocking imminent release deadlines rather than revealing new conviction.
Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 4, 2026?
38%→97%24h
$8,228 traded · 24h
Science & Tech
Will the next Google Gemini Flash model be released on September 2, 2026?
22%→78%24h
$7,291 traded · 24h
Science & Tech
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 15, 2026?
50%→94%7d
$19,541 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
4.3%→50%7d
$8,440 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
68%→38%7d
$1,208,285 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
34%→2.2%7d
$186,667 traded · 24h
Culture
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 940m and 950m by September 30?
26%→63%7d
$14,572 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?
24%→58%24h
$5,016 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Markets shifted the Trump-Putin venue toward China, now 54% (+13 points on the day, +6 on the week), as the no-meeting outcome fell to 40% (-9 points). An Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15 jumped 35 points overnight to 58%, even as the same market's near-term dates (September 9, 13) drifted lower. Confidence in the Israel-Iran ceasefire holding eased across every horizon, down 6-8 points on the day, and traders trimmed expectations for an end to the Iranian blockade by October to 37% (-2 points).
Brazil's third-place scramble intensified: Augusto Cury still leads at 50% (-4 points on the day) but his week-long surge of 45 points has stalled, while Renan Santos jumped 15 points to 32% and Ronaldo Caiado slid 15 points to 14%. Cury's presidential odds collapsed to 2% (-32 points on the week), leaving Lula (56%) and Flávio Bolsonaro (40%, +5 on the week) as the real contenders. Meanwhile, traders continued favoring a September Fed hike, 60% versus 38% for no change, extending the week's rate-path repricing.
The Fed repricing continued: a September hike sits at 58% (+3 points on the day, +25 on the week) and October at 66% (+24 on the week), while 2026 odds for any hike reached 72%. The Bank of Japan looks near-certain to move, with a 25bp increase at 96% (+8 points on the day). Gold's path higher cooled slightly, its $5,000 target down 4 points to 46%, while Anthropic's IPO is increasingly expected in October (88%, +11 points on the week) at a $1.75-2.0T valuation (25%, +4 points).
October 202688%▲ 11 7dSeptember 20267%▼ 2 24hDecember 20261.7%▼ 2 7d
Science & Tech
AI release markets swung hard as deadlines close in: Google's next Gemini Flash model hit 97% for a September 4 release (+58 points on the day) and 78% for today's September 2 target (+55 points), while OpenAI's Astra reached 94% for a September 15 release (+32 points on the day, +44 on the week) — largely calendar effects rather than fresh conviction. GPT-6 by September 30 climbed to 59% (+14 points on the day, +35 on the week), and Anthropic held its lead as traders' pick for best AI agent at 90%.
Carlos Alcaraz remains the market's US Open favorite at 36% (+2 points on the day, +6 on the week), ahead of Alexander Zverev at 22%. On the women's side, Coco Gauff (19%) and a rising Elena Rybakina (6%, +2 points) lead a wide-open field. Harry Kane's Ballon d'Or favoritism held near-steady at 63%, and Mercedes remained a near-lock for the F1 Constructors' title at 92%.
Los Angeles Rams16%▼ 1 24hDallas Cowboys4.5%▼ 1 7dJacksonville Jaguars2.5%▼ 1 7dSeattle Seahawks6.5%
Culture
Traders sharply favored a narrower box-office outcome for Spider-Man: Brand New Day, with the $940-950m band jumping 12 points to 63% (+36 on the week) at the expense of the $950-960m band, which fell 16 points to 17%. Grand Theft Auto VI's extended-look view count is simply settling in as its two-day resolution window nears, with under-20M holding at 86%.
The lone entry here, Putin's meeting with Iranian officials, sits at 99% with its August 31 deadline effectively arrived — a formality more than a forecast.