What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
GPT-6 Odds Rocket 42 Points in a Day as AI Race Hits Fever Pitch
Traders piled into a Sept. 15 GPT-6 launch, sending its odds from 46% to 88% in 24 hours, while sibling bets on OpenAI's Astra and the next Mythos-Class model raced toward certainty too. Elsewhere, the Fed's rate path wobbled and Tehran's blockade odds kept fading.
Markets moved as if a memo leaked. Odds that GPT-6 ships by September 15 rocketed to 88%, up 42 points on the day and 77 over the week, on $112,768 of trading — a repricing so sharp it dragged sibling contracts along: OpenAI's Astra now sits at 98% (+3 pts, +46 on the week) for the same deadline, and the next Mythos-Class model's debut above 1500 climbed to 98% (+33 pts/24h). Away from Silicon Valley, the Fed's September path stayed genuinely contested — 25-basis-point-hike odds fell 9 points on the day to 52% even as they gained 21 over the week, leaving traders no closer to consensus. Geopolitics offered a slower-burning signal: bets on Washington declaring an end to Iran's blockade by October 31 slid to 36%, down 24 points over seven days, with two months still on the clock. In Brazil, third-place odds for Augusto Cury held near 53%, up 39 on the week, after a volatile stretch.
Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get between 20 and 22 million views on week 1?
14%→88%24h
$121,746 traded · 24h
Science & Tech
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 15, 2026?
52%→98%7d
$14,654 traded · 24h
Science & Tech
Will the next Mythos-Class model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?
50%→98%7d
$8,014 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Fatima Shaban win the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election?
50%→90%7d
$17,483 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
14%→53%7d
$7,746 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Jeff Beattie win the 2026 Hamilton East—Stoney Creek provincial by-election?
27%→60%7d
$10,103 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
60%→36%7d
$38,124 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Iran's map of options narrowed and widened at once. A market on Iran targeting an Arab country by September 18 spiked to 98%, up 38 points in a day, while traders further faded hopes Washington declares an end to Tehran's blockade — now 36% for October 31, down 24 points over the week and 20 for the September 30 marker. Yet the ceasefire itself looks sturdier: Israel-Iran truce continuing through September 30 rose to 86% (+6 pts/24h), and a broader US-Iran pause climbed to 62% for September 18, up 12 points on the day.
Germany supplied the week's clearest realignment: odds that the SPD takes just 5-7% of the Sachsen-Anhalt vote jumped to 55%, up 29 points on the day, as the 7-9% band collapsed 16 points to 36%. Trump's praise market flipped hard too — Sheinbaum cratered 40 points to 6% while Rutte (49%, +27 on the week) and Milei (42%, +18) surged. In Brazil, Cury's bid for third place held near 53%, up 39 on the week after a volatile stretch, while Ontario's by-elections swung late toward Shaban (90%, +16 today) and Beattie (60%, +26) as polls close.
Rate expectations stayed unsettled on both sides of the Pacific. The Fed's September call swung intraday — 25-basis-point-hike odds fell 9 points to 52% even as they're up 21 over the week — while a hike within 2026 overall sits at 70%. Tokyo looks far more decided: the Bank of Japan's 25bps move for September rose to 97%, up 11 points on the week. In venture markets, Anthropic's IPO odds for December 31 reached 96% (+4 on the week), while a 2027 token launch for Base held at 57%.
The AI release calendar compressed dramatically. GPT-6 by September 15 jumped to 88%, up 42 points on the day and 77 over the week, on $112,768 traded — with later deadlines (September 30 at 90%, October 31 at 94%) converging toward the same certainty. OpenAI's Astra, due the same week, sits at 98% (+3 pts/24h, +46/7d), and the next Mythos-Class model debuting above 1500 climbed to 98% (+33 pts/24h, +48/7d). Gemini 4.0 lagged the pack, still just 6% for a September 15 release though 70% by October 31. Anthropic remained traders' pick for best AI agent, at 92%.
Tennis and football provided the calmer signals. Carlos Alcaraz's odds to win the US Open rose to 42%, up 5 points on the day and 14 over the week, well clear of Alexander Zverev (22%) and Daniil Medvedev (5%). Arsenal remains the market's Premier League favorite for 2027 at 50%, while Manchester City leads Champions League futures at just 10%. Off the court, traders reshuffled Lacy and Marlon's Fortnite marathon by the hour — odds they clear it by September 6 jumped to 57%, up 24 points on the day, as the livestream neared its own deadline.
Grand Theft Auto VI's Extended Look surged to 88% for landing 20-22 million week-one views, up 75 points on the day — a jump that owes as much to the clip's own roughly 18-hour countdown to resolution as to genuine surprise. Away from the deadline, Morgan Wallen's grip on Billboard's #1 Artist slipped to 71%, down 13 points on the day, as Taylor Swift climbed to 10%, up 9. 'No Bond chosen' rose to 28%, up 6 points on the day, with the market still unconvinced 007's replacement is close.