What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
Iran Ceasefire Odds Jump as Sweden's Liberals and Spider-Man Surge
Traders lifted the odds of a durable Iran ceasefire and a Sweden Liberal breakthrough overnight, while a surprise re-rating sent Spider-Man's box-office forecast surging 44 points in a single day.
Middle East diplomacy is having a good week on Polymarket: traders now put a US-Iran ceasefire by September 18 at 75%, up 4 points on the day and 26 over the week, while Israel's prospective airspace closure by September 30 has climbed to 96%, up 15 points on the day and 91 over seven. Domestic politics offered its own reversal, as Sweden's Liberals surged to 58% to win seats, up 12 points on the day and 44 over the week, even as Romania's presumptive premier Alexandru Nazare slid to 23%, down 24 points on the day. The biggest single swing, though, came from Hollywood: traders now give 80% odds that Spider-Man: Brand New Day finishes its domestic run between $950m and $960m, up a startling 44 points in 24 hours. On the court, Carlos Alcaraz's US Open title odds held near 56%, up 22 points over the week.
Will Sven Schulze be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?
73%→4%7d
$5,868 traded · 24h
Culture
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 950m and 960m by September 30?
33%→80%7d
$24,381 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats?
14%→58%7d
$27,030 traded · 24h
Sports
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?
34%→56%7d
$170,326 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?
43%→66%7d
$59,264 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?
90%→64%7d
$7,026 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
47%→23%24h
$7,762 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
The Iran ceasefire clock is resetting in traders' favor: the September 18 marker rose to 75% (+4 pts/24h, +26 pts/7d) and September 30 to 80% (+4 pts/24h, +23 pts/7d). Israel's prospective airspace closure, meanwhile, climbed to 96% (+15 pts/24h, +91 pts/7d) as the September 30 deadline nears. An Israel-Lebanon meeting by September 15 also gained ground, up to 44% (+14 pts/24h, +20 pts/7d), suggesting traders see a broader regional thaw rather than an isolated shift.
September 3028%▲ 4 24hOctober 3144%▲ 7 24hAugust 316.5%▲ 1 24h
Politics & Elections
Sweden's Liberals jumped to 58% odds of winning seats (+12 pts/24h, +44 pts/7d), the week's sharpest partisan swing outside a deadline. Romania's succession race flipped hard: presumptive premier Alexandru Nazare fell to 23% (-24 pts/24h, -23 pts/7d) as Sorin Grindeanu rose to 21% (+6 pts/24h, +14 pts/7d). In Sachsen-Anhalt, where the vote has already passed, Sven Schulze's odds collapsed to 4% (-14 pts/24h) — less news than the calendar closing out a settled contest.
Anthropic's IPO odds held flat at 64% (+1 pt/24h) after last week's sharp cooling, suggesting traders have found a new equilibrium rather than reversing course. The Bank of Japan's 25bps hike is now near-consensus at 98% (+9 pts/7d), and a Fed hike by the September meeting ticked up to 52% (+4 pts/24h). NVIDIA remains the runaway favorite for largest company at 97%.
SpaceX's Starship Flight Test 14 firmed up for September 26, now 82% (+19 pts/24h, +36 pts/7d), while a September 19 window rose to 46% (+8 pts/24h). Apple's foldable iPhone bet gained across the board, with a September 30 launch now 65% (+6 pts/24h) and September 15 up to 29% (+14 pts/24h). Anthropic still dominates model-quality bets, holding 88% for best AI model through September.
Carlos Alcaraz's US Open odds held near 56% (-1 pt/24h) but are up sharply, 22 points, over the week, on $531,849 traded in that market alone. In the women's draw, Elena Rybakina jumped to 20% (+13 pts/24h, +15 pts/7d), narrowing the gap on favorite Aryna Sabalenka's 29%. Further out, Madrid's odds of hosting the 2030 World Cup final rose to 57% (+19 pts/24h, +19 pts/7d).
Denver Broncos7%▲ 2 24hSan Francisco 49ers3.9%Detroit Lions4%Jacksonville Jaguars2.4%
Culture
The day's largest single move: Spider-Man: Brand New Day's odds of a $950-960m domestic gross rocketed to 80% (+44 pts/24h, +47 pts/7d), as the narrower $940-950m band collapsed to 18% (-43 pts/24h). Traders also lifted expectations for the next MrBeast video, now 64% (+22 pts/24h) for 70-80M first-week views, and warmed to Jack Lowden as the next James Bond, up to 25% (+7 pts/24h).