What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
Israel-Lebanon Meeting Odds Rocket 50 Points as Diplomacy Heats Up
A sudden diplomatic opening in the Levant dominated the tape, while bond markets quietly cemented a higher-for-longer rate view and the Fed's own verdict arrived mostly by calendar.
Traders piled into an Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting overnight, sending odds for a Sept. 15 sit-down up 50 points on the day to 65%, with later dates drifting higher still — 78% for Sept. 16 and 17, 86% for Sept. 18 — as the window for talks widens. Bond markets told a slower story: the 10-year Treasury hitting 5.0% before 2027 is now priced at 96%, up 48 points on the week and 6 on the day, a grind rather than a spike. The Fed's own September verdict, due within 18 hours, has collapsed toward certainty — a 25-basis-point hike now 88%, no-change cut to 12%, down 9 points on the day and 36 on the week — though that convergence owes as much to the calendar as to conviction. Away from macro, MrBeast Gaming's view-count odds for 45-50 million in week one jumped 32 points to 52%, the day's largest culture-market swing.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
48%→12%7d
$5,172,888 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?
15%→65%24h
$21,258 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?
49%→96%7d
$8,927 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?
66%→95%7d
$405,243 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?
52%→88%7d
$41,961 traded · 24h
Culture
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 45 and 50 million views in week 1?
20%→52%24h
$7,557 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
Fed rate hike in 2026?
70%→92%7d
$237,517 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13?
26%→6%7d
$23,710 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
The day's sharpest geopolitical move came from an Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting, up 50 points to 65% for Sept. 15 and climbing further for later dates — 78% for Sept. 16 and 17, 86% for Sept. 18 — as traders bet the diplomatic window stays open. The US-Iran ceasefire held near-certain at 95-97% across staggered deadlines. Hormuz ship-transit counts stayed muddled, with the 20-24 bracket down to 6% (-5 on the day) as 25-29 gained ground, while Houthi advances into Aden cooled to 12% for September.
September 219%▼ 2 24hSeptember 3022%▲ 4 24hOctober 3144%▲ 5 24h
Politics & Elections
The Fed's September call, resolving within 18 hours, tightened decisively: a 25bp hike at 88% (+8 on the day, +36 on the week), no-change collapsed to 12% (-9, -36) — a deadline convergence more than a surprise. Clarity Act vote-counting saw Rand Paul's yes-odds collapse 40 points to 8% while Jacky Rosen's climbed 18 points to 40%; the bill's 2026 passage odds slipped to 18% (-10 on the day). In Brazil, Lula's second-place odds rose to 25% (+4) as Bolsonaro's son eased to 76%.
Augusto Cury44%▼ 8 24hRonaldo Caiado16%▲ 6 24hRenan Santos40%▲ 1 24h
Economy & Crypto
Bond markets kept grinding toward higher-for-longer: a 5.0% 10-year yield before 2027 is now priced at 96%, up 48 points over the week. Fed-hike odds for September reached 88% (+8 on the day, +36 on the week), October's climbed to 90%, and a 2026 hike overall sits at 92%. Traders still favor one 25bp move over multiple hikes (50% vs. 40% for two). Anthropic's IPO timeline nudged later, with November 30 odds at 80%, down 5 points on the week.
Gemini 4.0's release window kept slipping — a September 30 launch fell to 10% (-5 on the day, -19 on the week) — as traders push expectations toward October and November. Anthropic's hold on the 'best AI model' title strengthened to 96%, up 9 points on the week, leaving Google a token 2%.
Ballon d'Or markets tilted toward youth: Lamine Yamal rose 7 points on the day (10 on the week) to 24%, while Harry Kane's odds eased to 54%, down 6 and 10 respectively. In England, Arsenal's 2027 title odds climbed to 57%, up 5 points on the week, as Chelsea faded to 6%.
MrBeast Gaming's week-one view count saw the day's biggest culture swing, with the 45-50 million bracket surging 32 points to 52% while 40-45 million fell 8 points to 42%. The Bond casting market stayed unsettled: Jack Lowden eased 10 points on the day to 35% even as his weekly odds rose 10, while Callum Turner gained 7 points to 16%.