A crypto market-structure bill's Senate prospects collapsed overnight, while traders pushed the odds of a 2026 Fed rate hike to near-lock territory.
Overnight, the Senate's crypto market-structure bill lost its majority in the market's eyes: odds that more than 50 Senators back the Clarity Act fell to 10%, down 36 points on the day and 28 points on the week, with support among named holdouts like Thom Tillis (13%, -28) and Jacky Rosen (12%, -28) sliding in lockstep. Meanwhile the Fed narrative firmed rather than reversed — traders now put a 2026 rate hike at 96% (+25 points on the week), with September (87%) and October (92%) meeting-specific contracts both pricing an increase, not a cut. In geopolitics, Friedrich Merz's odds of visiting Ukraine by year-end jumped to 44%, up 14 points on the day and 20 on the week, edging past Mark Rutte (40%). And in culture, MrBeast Gaming's traders swung hard: the 40-45 million view-count band for its next video surged 30 points to 71% in a single day.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
46%→12%7d
$6,533,691 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Moderate Party (M) win between 18% and 20% of all valid votes?
38%→92%7d
$15,043 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?
54%→87%7d
$60,298 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will over 50 Senators vote for the Clarity Act?
46%→10%24h
$19,273 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
Fed rate hike in 2026?
70%→96%7d
$304,784 traded · 24h
Culture
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 940m and 950m by September 30?
25%→55%7d
$13,089 traded · 24h
Culture
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 40 and 45 million views in week 1?
42%→71%24h
$11,234 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Will Friedrich Merz visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?
24%→44%7d
$23,883 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Merz's Ukraine odds rose to 44% (+14 on the day, +20 on the week), overtaking Emmanuel Macron (17%, -4) and closing on Mark Rutte (40%). Xi Jinping's US visit by September 23 firmed to 89% (+11 on the day) as the date nears. Israel striking exactly four countries in 2026 held at 77%, while Iran's Hormuz-fee timelines drifted lower across the board — October 31 down to 16%, December 31 to 30% — as traders push the story further out.
September 217.5%▼ 2 24hSeptember 3019%▼ 4 24hOctober 3142%▼ 2 24h
Politics & Elections
The Clarity Act's Senate math fell apart on the tape: odds of 50-plus votes dropped to 10% (-36 on the day), with Above-55 (12%, -26) and Above-60 (10%, -21) collapsing in tandem, and law-by-2026 odds down to 5%. With the September Fed meeting now at hand, 'no change' settled at 12% and Sweden's Moderate Party vote-share bucket hit 92% as both deadline-bound contracts converge toward resolution. In Berlin, Die Linke's lead widened to 66% (+19 on the week), well clear of the CDU's 26%.
Traders hardened their conviction that the Fed hikes rather than cuts: a 2026 increase now prices at 96% (+25 on the week), with September (87%) and October (92%) meeting contracts both leaning the same way. Recession odds for 2026 ticked up to 16% (+7 on the day), and the odds of the 10-year yield reaching 5.1% jumped to 72% (+7 on the day). Anthropic's IPO timeline slipped across nearer-dated bands, with the December 31 contract still the surest bet at 88%.
None by December 25, 202686%▲ 10 7dArtificial Inu (AI)8.5%▲ 1 24hThe Black Bull (ANSEM)1.6%▼ 2 7dCash Cat (CASHCAT)5.5%▼ 1 7d
Science & Tech
Confidence that major labs commit to third-party vetting by October 31 fell across the board — Google to 32% (-12), Microsoft to 30% (-11), SpaceXAI to 17% (-30) — a broad retreat rather than one lab's story. Anthropic's hold on 'best model' honors strengthened to 96% (+7 on the week). Traders also warmed to a Tesla-SpaceX merger announcement, up to 61% by December 2027 (+10 on the day), and to OpenAI notching another Millennium Prize solution, now 76% by end-2027 (+7 on the day, +38 on the week).
Uzbekistan's odds to win the Chess Olympiad Open climbed to 31% (+8 on the day), pulling ahead of the United States (22%) as India (28%) holds second. Harry Kane's Ballon d'Or favoritism eased to 54% (-9 on the week) as Lamine Yamal closed to 22% (+8 on the week). Kimi Antonelli's F1 title odds stayed near-total at 93%, and Arsenal extended its lead for the 2027 EPL crown to 56%, ahead of Manchester City's 30%.
MrBeast Gaming's audience call swung hard in a day: the 40-45 million view band for the channel's next video surged to 71% (+30 on the day) at the expense of the 45-50 million bucket, now 29% (-23). Traders also reshuffled 'Spider-Man: Brand New Day' box-office expectations, moving 14 points from the 940-950m band (now 55%) into the 950-960m band (46%, +16) as the September 30 deadline nears.