Geopolitics
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?
15%→
98%
7d
Traders now put a Trump-brokered Greenland pact at 98%, up 83 points in a week, even as they push Anthropic's IPO timeline deeper into December and turn hawkish on the Fed.
Markets have all but stopped hedging on Greenland: traders now price a Trump-brokered deal by December 31 at 98%, up 83 points on the week and 2 more since yesterday, on $113,484 of volume. Certainty is scarcer in the boardroom — Anthropic's odds of an IPO by October 31 have collapsed to 4%, down 55 points over seven days, as the crowd reassigns probability mass toward mid-December (73%, +6 on the day). The Fed outlook is turning hawkish in step: markets now favor two rate hikes in 2026 at 61%, up 24 points this week, with zero cuts priced at 96%. Hollywood surprised to the upside — 'Spider-Man: Brand New Day' traders flipped its box-office band to 950-960 million (95%, +49 points/7d) from the lower bracket (down to 3%). And in Spain, Barcelona's La Liga title odds for 2027 climbed to 78% (+10 on the day) as Real Madrid slid to 18%.
Traders have nearly closed the book on a Trump-Greenland agreement, pricing a deal by December 31 at 98% — up 83 points over the week and still climbing 2 more overnight on $113,484 in volume, with near-term dates (September 23 at 86%, September 25 at 93%) also gaining ground. Meanwhile the front lines are being pushed back on the calendar: markets now see only 14% odds Russia enters Dobropillia by September 30 (down 37 points on the day), with probability instead clustering around October 31 (66%) and December 31 (88%). Russian election tallies mostly reflect ballots closing, not fresh news.
Away from Sunday's European ballot counts, the liveliest race is Canada's Abbotsford-Mission by-election: Pam Alexis has surged 33 points over the week to 46%, while Kerry-Lynne Findlay has cratered 58 points to 27% — though 'Person A' still tops the market at 50%. In Washington, the Clarity Act's odds of becoming law in 2026 keep fading, now 6% and down 23 points over seven days. Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern results (CDU and SPD both near-certain seconds) reflect polls closing more than any late swing.
The Fed narrative is hardening hawkish: traders now put two rate hikes in 2026 at 61% (+24 points/7d), three hikes at 27% (+21 points/7d), and zero cuts at 96%. Anthropic's IPO timeline keeps slipping — odds of a listing by October 31 have collapsed to 4% (-55 points/7d), with the crowd instead clustering around December 15 (73%, +6 points on the day) and November 30 (52%).
Markets are pricing today, September 21, as the likeliest date for the next Claude Opus release at 41% (+11 points on the day), edging out later dates. OpenAI's consumer-hardware ambitions look shakier by the hour: odds of an October 31 launch fell to 6% (-18 points/24h) and a December 31 launch to 20% (-14 points), as traders push expectations further out.
Barcelona are pulling away in the 2027 La Liga title market, up to 78% (+10 points on the day, +8 on the week) as Real Madrid slides to 18% (-9, -9). In the Premier League's 2027 race, Manchester City has clawed back to 38% (+10 points/7d) against Arsenal's 46% (-11/7d). Stateside, Brock Purdy jumped 11 points overnight to 15% in the NFL MVP market, trailing only Josh Allen's 28%.
Box-office traders flipped their view on 'Spider-Man: Brand New Day': the 950-960 million domestic-gross band jumped to 95% (+49 points/7d) while the 940-950 million band collapsed to 3% (-51 points/7d), a full reversal from a week ago. Viewership expectations for the next MrBeast video have converged sharply on the 60-70 million band, now 68% (+36 points/24h) as both the 70-80 million (26%) and 80-90 million (2%) bands lost ground.
At this rate, Greenland will be a done deal before Anthropic finishes its S-1.
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