What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
Traders See a Crowded Room as US-Iran Talks Odds Surge
A single day's trading pushed Qatar's foreign minister from afterthought to favorite in the race to attend US-Iran talks, while Riyadh's pipeline timeline slipped later and the Fed's hawks gained further ground.
Prediction markets repriced diplomacy overnight. Traders now give Qatari Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani a 71% chance of attending a US-Iran talks round by year-end, up 60 points in 24 hours and 57 over the week, with fellow prospective attendees Kazem Gharibabadi (44%, +30 points on the day) and Ishaq Dar (40%, +26) rising alongside him — a coordinated repricing rather than a lone rumor. Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline restart odds drifted later too, with September 30 now favored at 62% (+34 points on the day). On the economic desk, the Fed's hawkish path firmed further: two rate hikes in 2026 now command 63% (+18 points over the week), while Anthropic's IPO-by-October-31 odds cratered to 3% (-50 over seven days). Even culture markets caught the volatility, as MrBeast's next video flipped from a 70-80 million view favorite (now 35%, -38 points) to a 60-70 million consensus (62%, +35) within a single day.
Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
24%→98%7d
$11,770 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Kerry-Lynne Findlay win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election?
75%→4.6%7d
$12,968 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
12%→71%24h
$18,837 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22?
50%→5.5%7d
$84,407 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?
53%→3%7d
$14,139 traded · 24h
Culture
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?
74%→35%24h
$10,471 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?
48%→14%7d
$15,357 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Trump renames AI by September 30?
7%→28%24h
$104,294 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Traders repriced a US-Iran talks round almost overnight: Qatar's Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani jumped to 71% odds of attending (+60 points on the day, +57 over the week), with Iran's Kazem Gharibabadi (44%, +30 points on the day) and Pakistan's Ishaq Dar (40%, +26) rising in tandem — a broad repricing, not a single rumor. Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline restart odds also drifted later, with September 30 now favored at 62% (+34 points on the day) after the original September 22 target lapsed.
Serbia's opposition Student List surged to 41% (+15 points on the day) against Aleksandar Vučić's 60% (-6), ahead of the parliamentary vote. Canada's Abbotsford-Mission by-election saw Conservative Kerry-Lynne Findlay's odds fall to 5%, down 70 points over the week. And with September 30 approaching, traders now give 28% odds (+20 points on the day) to Donald Trump renaming AI outright before the deadline.
December 31, 202614%▼ 4 24hOctober 31, 20265.5%▼ 3 24h
Economy & Crypto
The Fed's hawkish repricing continued: two rate hikes in 2026 now command 63% (+18 points over the week) versus 14% for just one (-34 points) — a sharp reversal from last month's dovish consensus. Anthropic's IPO timeline is stretching later too: October 31 odds cratered to 3% (-50 points over the week), with November 30 fading to 57% (-18), even as December 31 holds relatively firm at 78% (-9).
Barcelona's 2027 La Liga title odds jumped to 78% (+11 points over the week) at Real Madrid's expense, now down to 18% (-11). Harry Kane extended his Ballon d'Or lead to 58% (+4 over the week), with Lamine Yamal a distant second at 22%. In the WNBA, A'ja Wilson's MVP odds slipped 8 points on the day to 88%, still a near-formality, as Caitlin Clark ticked up to 5% (+4).
Expectations for MrBeast's next video flipped within a single day: the 70-80 million view band, favored yesterday, collapsed to 35% (-38 points), while the more modest 60-70 million range rocketed to 62% (+35) — a rare same-day reversal suggesting traders caught early performance data.