What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
Markets Flip the Trump-Xi Handshake Call as Hormuz Risk Climbs
A summit-day gesture goes from afterthought to coin flip overnight, while traders price rising odds of a Hormuz shipping incident and cool sharply on a Houthi tanker seizure.
Prediction markets swung hardest on geopolitics today. The odds that Trump and Xi's handshake lasts just 2–6 seconds jumped to 72%, up 51 points on the day and 56 over the week, as traders abandoned bets on a longer clasp. In the Gulf, the odds of shipping being targeted in the Strait of Hormuz on September 25 rose to 60%, up 33 points over the week, even as the odds of a Houthi tanker seizure by October 31 collapsed to 20%, down 29 points on the day. Elsewhere, traders raised the odds of three Fed rate hikes in 2026 to 41%, up 9 points on the day and 24 over the week, narrowing the gap with the two-hike favorite. And in British Columbia, Lorne Doerkson surged to 48% to become premier, up 18 points on the day, as David Eby fell 17 points to 52%.
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?
16%→77%7d
$8,635 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during their summit?
15%→72%7d
$7,905 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 25, 2026?
26%→60%7d
$20,994 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Houthis seize an oil tanker by October 31, 2026?
50%→20%7d
$31,141 traded · 24h
Culture
Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 22m?
28%→57%7d
$19,771 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?
18%→41%7d
$9,982 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia?
42%→20%7d
$5,416 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Lorne Doerkson be the next Premier of British Columbia?
29%→48%24h
$10,663 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
The marquee shift: Trump and Xi's handshake is now priced at 72% for lasting just 2–6 seconds, up 51 points in a day, as longer-clasp scenarios (6–10s at 21%, 10–15s at 7%) were sold off. In the Gulf, traders lifted the odds of a Hormuz shipping incident on September 25 to 60%, up 33 points over the week, while cooling on a Houthi tanker seizure by October 31, now 20%, down 29 points on the day and 31 over the week.
September 3034%▼ 6 24hOctober 1562%▼ 6 24hOctober 3176%▼ 5 24h
Politics & Elections
British Columbia's premier race flipped: Lorne Doerkson jumped to 48%, up 18 points on the day, as David Eby fell 17 points to 52%. In Serbia, Ilija Srdanović's path to prime minister faded to 20%, down 22 points over the week, while incumbent Aleksandar Vučić held at 58%. Brazil's traders grew more confident of a decisive first-round win for Lula da Silva, pricing a sub-5% margin at 66%, up 13 points on the day.
December 31, 202612%▲ 1 24hOctober 31, 20264.5%▼ 3 24h
Economy & Crypto
Rate-hike odds firmed: traders now put three Fed hikes in 2026 at 41%, up 9 points on the day and 24 over the week, though two hikes remains the modal outcome at 50%. Rate-cut pricing stayed frozen — 97% still see zero cuts this year. In crypto, Variational's projected valuation cooled slightly, with an FDV above $1B priced at 67%, down 8 points on the day.
Uzbekistan's hold on the Chess Olympiad title loosened to 52%, down 20 points on the day, as Germany's odds climbed to 17%, up 13. Barcelona's grip on the 2027 LaLiga crown tightened to 78%, up 11 points over the week, at Real Madrid's expense. In MLB, Philadelphia's postseason odds eased to 93%, down 6 points on the day, still comfortably the market's safest bet.
San Diego Padres6.9%▲ 2 24hTampa Bay Rays12%▲ 1 24hNew York Yankees8.5%▼ 2 7dHouston Astros2.6%▼ 1 24h
Culture
MrBeast's next video is now priced at 77% to land 60–70 million first-week views, up 12 points on the day — a shift traders attribute more to the approaching resolution, roughly two days out, than fresh signal. "Primetime" traders pared its $22m+ opening-weekend odds to 57%, down 8 points, while Taylor Swift's "The Fate of Ophelia" extended its lead for VMA Video of the Year to 62%.
The Fate of Ophelia (Taylor Swift)62%▼ 2 24hHate That I Made You Love Me (Ariana Grande)22%▲ 2 24hTears (Sabrina Carpenter)4.3%▲ 2 24hConfessions II – The Film (Madonna)6.7%▲ 1 24h