What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
Peace Talks Freeze From Kyiv to Tehran as Oura's IPO Hopes Collapse
Markets now put 74% odds on no Putin-Zelenskyy summit before 2027, longer-dated US-Iran talks keep losing ground, and traders have all but buried Oura's public listing at 84%.
Diplomacy is going quiet across three fronts at once. Traders now put 74% odds, up 44 points on the day, on no Putin-Zelenskyy summit before the end of 2027, while the October 31 contract on a US-Iran diplomatic meeting slid to 30%, down 42 points on the week, and the December 31 version eased to 66%, off 21 points over the same span. Riyadh's timeline is stretching too: markets give the Saudi pipeline only 67% odds of restarting by October 31, down 19 points on the week. Away from geopolitics, Oura's public listing has effectively died, with 'no IPO before January 2027' surging to 84%, up 83 points in a single day, while OpenAI's return of ChatGPT Pro signups by October 31 slipped to 30%, down 30 points on the day and 48 on the week.
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
70%→6.2%7d
$59,390 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?
62%→3.3%7d
$53,709 traded · 24h
Science & Tech
Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by October 31, 2026?
78%→30%7d
$8,741 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?
72%→32%24h
$44,668 traded · 24h
Science & Tech
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?
71%→28%7d
$7,226 traded · 24h
Science & Tech
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 9, 2026?
48%→16%7d
$8,476 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Bia Kicis win the second-most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election?
48%→78%24h
$8,833 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Markets have all but ruled out a near-term Ukraine breakthrough: 'no Putin-Zelenskyy meeting by 2027' jumped to 74%, up 44 points in a day, as Slovakia, Serbia and Finland each fell to 4% as venues. Washington-Tehran diplomacy is cooling further out too: the October 31 meeting contract is down 42 points on the week to 30%. Riyadh's pipeline restart odds slid to 67% by October 31, off 19 points weekly. Traders still give Russia 76% odds of entering Mykolaivka by October 31 and 88% by year-end, even as the immediate contract cooled sharply. In Caracas, Maduro's hold firmed to 71%, up 13 points on the week.
Brazil's Federal District Senate race snapped hard: Bia Kicis surged to 78% for second place, up 30 points on the day and 25 on the week, as Leila do Vôlei faded to 10%. The presidential first-round undercard moved too, with Renan Santos climbing to 52% for third place, up 9 on the week. In Bulgaria, Iliana Iotova extended her lead to 80% for the presidency, up 12 points weekly over challenger Andrey Gyurov's 20%.
Augusto Cury35%▼ 7 24hRenan Santos52%▲ 5 24hRonaldo Caiado14%▼ 2 7d
Economy & Crypto
Oura's public listing has effectively died on the markets: 'no IPO before January 2027' surged 83 points in both the past day and the past week, to 84%. Fed-hike expectations reshuffled too, with traders now favoring two hikes at 56%, up 9 points on the day, over three hikes at 27%, down 17, though 'another hike in 2026' still holds at 86%. Anthropic's IPO timeline drifted later, with the December 15 contract easing to 76% and November 30 firming to 64%.
Next-model timelines keep slipping across the board. GPT Astra 6.1+ fell to 28% for an October 31 release, down 43 points on the week, while OpenAI's ChatGPT Pro signup restart cooled to 30% for the same date, off 48 points weekly. Google fared little better on its nearest contract, with the next Gemini Pro model at just 16% for October 9, though traders still give 80% odds it lands by October 31. Gemini 4.0 held firmer, at 86% for October 31, up 4 points on the week.
December 31, 202634%▲ 1 24hOctober 31, 202610%▲ 1 24h
Sports
The Ballon d'Or race tightened into a coin flip: Harry Kane held a narrow 46% to Lamine Yamal's 43%, though Yamal gained 21 points on the week and traders now give him 94% odds of a top-three finish. Arsenal extended its lead for the 2027 Premier League title to 60%, up 12 points weekly, as Manchester City slipped to 20%, down 19. NHL playoff odds jumped across the board on the day, led by the Toronto Maple Leafs at 66%, up 11 points.
San Diego Padres15%▲ 5 24hPhiladelphia Phillies3.6%▼ 5 24hAtlanta Braves14%▲ 4 24hMilwaukee Brewers23%▼ 2 24h
Culture
The hunt for the next James Bond lost some clarity, with frontrunner Jack Lowden slipping to 32%, down 12 points on the day, as 'no Bond chosen' fell to 23%. Elsewhere, traders remain near-unanimous that Jesus Christ will not return before 2027, pricing that outcome at just 1%.