What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
Will Tesla deliver between 475000 and 500000 vehicles in Q3 2026: 24% → 96%
Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.
Today's automated edition — the numbers, straight from the markets. The crowd's biggest repricings: Will Tesla deliver between 475000 and 500000 vehicles in Q3 2026 moved from 24% to 96% over the last 7d; Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 19m? moved from 2% to 75% over the last 7d; Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026? moved from 24% to 80% over the last 7d; Over $40M committed to the Jumper public sale? moved from 48% to 94% over the last 24h. Full section tables below.
Will Tesla deliver between 475000 and 500000 vehicles in Q3 2026
24%→96%7d
$18,326 traded · 24h
Culture
Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 19m?
1.8%→75%7d
$14,477 traded · 24h
Science & Tech
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?
24%→80%7d
$6,009 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
Over $40M committed to the Jumper public sale?
48%→94%24h
$12,139 traded · 24h
Sports
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
22%→53%7d
$212,667 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?
62%→34%7d
$47,024 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Bia Kicis win the second-most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election?
59%→85%7d
$20,853 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
44%→62%7d
$101,199 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Markets price: Who will Trump speak to by October 31? — Mark Rutte at 24% (-46 pts/24h); Will Russia target Kyiv on...? — October 3 at 95% (+46 pts/24h).
October 31, 202624%▼ 2 24hDecember 31, 202656%▼ 4 24h
Politics & Elections
Markets price: Federal District Senate Election: 2nd Place — Bia Kicis at 85% (+2 pts/24h, +26 pts/7d); Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place — Renan Santos at 62% (+10 pts/24h, +18 pts/7d).
Markets price: Total commitments for the Jumper ($JUMP) public sale on Legion — >40M at 94% (+46 pts/24h); How many Tesla deliveries in Q3 2026? — 475k to 500k at 96% (+10 pts/24h, +72 pts/7d).
Cash Cat (CASHCAT)3.6%▲ 2 7dThe Black Bull (ANSEM)1.7%▲ 1 24hArtificial Inu (AI)12%▼ 1 7dNone by December 25, 202685%
Science & Tech
Markets price: When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released? — No release by November 1 at 80% (+4 pts/24h, +56 pts/7d); GPT Astra 6.1+ released by...? — October 31 at 24% (-15 pts/24h, -50 pts/7d).
Markets price: "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office — 16-19m at 75% (+26 pts/24h, +73 pts/7d); Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? — Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? at 2%.