What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
Will "Verity" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 30m and 32m?: 30% → 78%
Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.
Today's automated edition — the numbers, straight from the markets. The crowd's biggest repricings: Will "Verity" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 30m and 32m? moved from 30% to 78% over the last 24h; Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 23, 2026? moved from 62% to 14% over the last 7d; Will "Resident Evil" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m? moved from 44% to 3% over the last 24h; Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix? moved from 31% to 61% over the last 24h. Full section tables below.
Will "Verity" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 30m and 32m?
30%→78%24h
$11,614 traded · 24h
Science & Tech
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 23, 2026?
62%→14%7d
$7,220 traded · 24h
Culture
Will "Resident Evil" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m?
44%→3%24h
$6,174 traded · 24h
Sports
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix?
31%→61%24h
$32,436 traded · 24h
Sports
Will Isack Hadjar finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix?
54%→26%24h
$6,499 traded · 24h
Science & Tech
Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?
62%→86%24h
$26,460 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Renan Santos win between 2% and 4% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
42%→67%7d
$14,805 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
43%→21%7d
$35,398 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Markets price: Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31? — Majid Takht-Ravanchi at 44% (+20 pts/24h, +24 pts/7d); US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? — October 31 at 64% (+4 pts/24h, +15 pts/7d).
Markets price: Spain snap election called by...? — December 31 at 60% (-4 pts/24h, +48 pts/7d); São Paulo Senate Election: 1st Place — Guilherme Derrite at 82% (+22 pts/24h, +4 pts/7d).
Markets price: GPT Astra 6.1+ released by...? — October 23 at 14% (+6 pts/24h, -48 pts/7d); Gemini 4.0 released by...? — October 15 at 86% (+24 pts/24h).
December 31, 202755%▼ 4 24hDecember 31, 202619%▼ 4 24h
Sports
Markets price: Bahrain Grand Prix: Driver Winner — Max Verstappen at 61% (+30 pts/24h); Bahrain Grand Prix: Driver Podium Finish — George Russell at 22% (-43 pts/24h).