What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?: 85% → 8%
Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.
Today's automated edition — the numbers, straight from the markets. The crowd's biggest repricings: Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? moved from 85% to 8% over the last 7d; Spain snap election called in 2026? moved from 17% to 84% over the last 7d; Will "Verity" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 32m and 34m? moved from 23% to 97% over the last 24h; Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026? moved from 63% to 18% over the last 7d. Full section tables below.
Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?
85%→7.9%7d
$24,283 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Spain snap election called in 2026?
17%→84%7d
$31,440 traded · 24h
Culture
Will "Verity" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 32m and 34m?
23%→97%24h
$8,198 traded · 24h
Science & Tech
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?
63%→18%7d
$21,332 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Raquel Lyra win the Pernambuco Governor election?
50%→97%24h
$10,312 traded · 24h
Sports
Will KT Rolster win the Demacia Cup Global Invitational 2026?
27%→66%7d
$14,736 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30?
62%→24%7d
$5,068 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
52%→72%7d
$60,646 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Markets price: US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...? — November 30 at 24% (-3 pts/24h, -38 pts/7d); Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...? — September 23 at 48% (-28 pts/24h, -30 pts/7d).
Markets price: Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner — Eduardo Paes at 8% (-71 pts/24h, -77 pts/7d); Pernambuco Governor Election Winner — Raquel Lyra at 97% (+48 pts/24h, +39 pts/7d).
Markets price: Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...? — October 31 at 18% (-6 pts/24h, -46 pts/7d); OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...? — December 31, 2027 at 50% (-4 pts/24h, -19 pts/7d).
Markets price: Demacia Cup Global Invitational 2026: Winner — KT Rolster at 66% (+16 pts/24h, +39 pts/7d); MLB: 2026 National League Champion — Los Angeles Dodgers at 38% (-12 pts/24h, -4 pts/7d).