What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?: 86% → 6%
Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.
Today's automated edition — the numbers, straight from the markets. The crowd's biggest repricings: Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? moved from 86% to 6% over the last 7d; Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 1? moved from 82% to 36% over the last 24h; Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? moved from 11% to 49% over the last 24h; Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15? moved from 56% to 22% over the last 7d. Full section tables below.
Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?
86%→6%7d
$19,361 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 1?
82%→36%24h
$28,050 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
11%→49%24h
$45,380 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?
56%→22%7d
$54,876 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?
49%→86%24h
$19,946 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
58%→84%7d
$975,200 traded · 24h
Science & Tech
Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?
44%→77%7d
$36,947 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?
60%→88%7d
$41,906 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Markets price: Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...? — October 1 at 36% (-46 pts/24h); Israel military action against Lebanon on...? — October 15 at 76% (+25 pts/24h).
Markets price: Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner — Eduardo Paes at 6% (-2 pts/24h, -80 pts/7d); Next Prime Minister of Romania? — Luca Niculescu at 49% (+38 pts/24h).
Markets price: Will Predict.fun launch a token by ___? — December 31, 2026 at 86% (+36 pts/24h, +30 pts/7d); Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch? — $500M at 71% (+21 pts/24h, +10 pts/7d).
Markets price: Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...? — October 10 at 32% (-37 pts/24h); Gemini 4.0 released by...? — October 15 at 77% (+4 pts/24h, +33 pts/7d).
Markets price: MLB World Series Champion 2026 — New York Yankees at 4% (-6 pts/24h, -6 pts/7d); UEFA Nations League Winner 2026-27 — France at 20% (-8 pts/7d).
Manchester City20%▼ 1 24hArsenal62%▲ 2 7dLiverpool6.9%Manchester United1.7%
Culture
Markets price: Which mobs will eliminate Jynxzi, Ron or Los? — Iron Golem at 95% (+74 pts/24h); Jynxzi, Ron, and Los beat Minecraft by...? — October 8 at 46% (+22 pts/24h).