Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?: 4% → 31%
Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.
Today's automated edition — the numbers, straight from the markets. The crowd's biggest repricings: Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? moved from 4% to 31% over the last 7d; Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? moved from 40% to 14% over the last 7d; Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026? moved from 44% to 9% over the last 24h; Ethos FDV above $75M one day after launch? moved from 40% to 4% over the last 24h. Full section tables below.
Today’s biggest moves probability shifts, volume-weighted
Geopolitics
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
3.7% →
31%
7d
$1,123,518 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
40% →
14%
7d
$2,039,919 traded · 24h
Science & Tech
Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?
44% →
9.2%
24h
$13,809 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
Ethos FDV above $75M one day after launch?
40% →
3.5%
24h
$9,256 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
25% →
58%
7d
$20,008 traded · 24h
Science & Tech
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026?
41% →
5.5%
7d
$5,104 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Pakistan military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026?
5.4% →
32%
7d
$23,129 traded · 24h
Sports
Will Vitality Win the ESL Pro League Season 24?
22% →
44%
7d
$87,020 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Markets price: Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 — Yulia Navalnaya at 31% (+26 pts/24h, +27 pts/7d); Pakistan military action against Yemen by...? — October 31 at 32% (+24 pts/24h, +27 pts/7d).
Yulia Navalnaya 31% ▲ 26 24h Mykola Kuleba 16% ▲ 8 24h Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani 5.4% ▲ 5 24h International Court of Justice 7% ▲ 4 24h
October 31 32% ▲ 24 24h December 31 39% ▲ 11 24h
October 4 63% ▼ 29 24h October 25 72% ▲ 12 24h October 18 69% ▼ 6 24h October 6 74% ▼ 20 24h
March 31, 2027 28% ▼ 20 24h December 31 10% ▲ 1 24h
October 31 76% ▲ 5 24h October 15 92% ▲ 7 24h November 15 57% ▲ 12 7d December 31 34% ▲ 6 7d
October 15 3.9% ▼ 1 24h October 31 26% ▲ 1 24h November 30 49% ▲ 4 24h December 31 64% ▲ 4 24h
Politics & Elections
Markets price: Brazil Presidential Election — Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 14% (-2 pts/24h, -26 pts/7d); María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...? — October 31 at 20% (-24 pts/24h, -15 pts/7d).
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 14% ▼ 2 24h Flávio Bolsonaro 86% ▲ 2 24h
October 31 20% ▼ 24 24h October 15 7% ▼ 18 24h December 31 42% ▼ 14 24h
Luca Niculescu 58% ▼ 11 24h Alexandru Nazare 9% ▼ 1 24h Sorin Grindeanu 14% ▲ 3 24h George Simion 1.6%
December 31, 2028 28% ▲ 13 24h December 31, 2027 10% ▲ 1 24h June 30, 2027 8.5% ▼ 10 7d December 31, 2026 4.5% ▼ 1 7d
December 31, 2028 26% ▲ 1 24h December 31, 2027 20% ▼ 12 7d June 30, 2027 14% ▲ 1 24h December 31, 2026 5.5% ▼ 4 7d
Brad Bradford 27% ▲ 4 24h Olivia Chow 72% ▼ 6 24h
Economy & Crypto
Markets price: Ethos FDV above ___ one day after launch? — $50M at 12% (-66 pts/24h, -62 pts/7d); Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch? — $300M at 84% (+18 pts/7d).
$50M 12% ▼ 66 24h $75M 3.5% ▼ 36 24h $25M 74% ▼ 24 24h $35M 69% ▼ 23 24h
$300M 84% ▲ 18 7d $400M 80% ▲ 19 7d $200M 90% ▲ 19 7d $500M 70% ▼ 6 24h
2 (50 bps) 70% ▲ 4 24h 3 (75 bps) 8% ▼ 2 24h 1 (25 bps) 22% ▼ 1 24h
$1B 60% ▼ 4 24h $500M 87% ▼ 2 24h $800M 74% ▼ 2 24h $300M 96% ▲ 4 7d
December 31, 2027 9.5% ▲ 4 7d December 31, 2028 18% ▲ 3 7d December 31, 2029 22% ▲ 1 7d
Science & Tech
Markets price: Mistral Large 4: Text Arena Debut? — 1430+ at 6% (-75 pts/24h); Gemini 4.0 released by...? — October 10 at 9% (-35 pts/24h, -35 pts/7d).
October 10 9.2% ▼ 35 24h October 15 58% ▼ 13 24h October 31 86% ▼ 2 24h November 30 98% ▲ 1 24h
October 10 5.5% ▼ 5 24h October 24 70% ▲ 13 24h October 12 7.5% ▼ 11 24h October 14 26% ▼ 10 24h
No release by November 1 88% ▲ 12 24h October 19–October 25 3.1% ▼ 1 24h October 12–October 18 5.5% ▼ 1 24h
Muse Flame 1.9% ▼ 13 24h Muse Fire 9% ▼ 8 24h Muse Watermelon 4.5% ▼ 7 24h Muse Flare 5.8% ▼ 4 24h
December 31, 2026 10% ▼ 5 24h December 31, 2027 62% ▼ 2 24h
Sports
Markets price: ESL Pro League Season 24: Winner — Vitality at 44% (-4 pts/24h, +21 pts/7d); Ballon d'Or Top 3 Finish 2026 — Kylian Mbappé at 72% (+12 pts/24h, +8 pts/7d).
Vitality 44% ▼ 4 24h Spirit 17% ▼ 12 7d MOUZ 10% ▼ 6 24h Falcons 18% ▲ 5 24h
Kylian Mbappé 72% ▲ 12 24h Lionel Messi 34% ▲ 4 24h Rodri 14% ▲ 4 24h Harry Kane 96% ▼ 2 24h
Dallas Cowboys 36% ▼ 11 24h Philadelphia Eagles 36% ▲ 4 24h New York Giants 18% ▲ 4 24h Washington Commanders 8.8% ▲ 2 24h
Lamine Yamal 39% ▼ 5 24h Harry Kane 52% ▲ 3 24h Lionel Messi 3.1% ▲ 1 24h Kylian Mbappé 2.6%
Los Angeles Dodgers 42% ▲ 1 24h Tampa Bay Rays 23% ▲ 11 7d Chicago White Sox 3.9% ▼ 4 24h Milwaukee Brewers 24% ▲ 6 7d
Union Berlin 3% ▲ 3 24h SC Paderborn 2.8% ▲ 2 24h Bayern Munich 84% ▼ 1 24h Borussia Dortmund 6.5%
Culture
Markets price: Which mobs will eliminate Jynxzi, Ron or Los? — Wolf at 4% (-22 pts/24h); "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office — <21m at 3% (+2 pts/24h, -22 pts/7d).
Wolf 4.5% ▼ 22 24h Polar Bear 1.9% ▼ 3 24h
<21m 3.2% ▲ 2 24h 24-27m 22% ▲ 13 24h 33m+ 28% ▼ 9 24h 21-24m 4.1% ▲ 1 24h
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 52% ▼ 12 24h Avengers: Doomsday 44% ▲ 7 24h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? 1.2%
World & Other
Markets price: How many UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027? — 2 at 88% (+1 pts/24h, +1 pts/7d).
Probabilities are the crowd's opinion of tomorrow — updated daily.
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Methodology. The Probable Times reads live prices on Polymarket, the world’s
largest prediction market, as collective probability estimates. A market trading at 72¢
implies traders collectively price that outcome at 72%. We track roughly 400 of the
highest-volume open questions, compute how probabilities moved over the last 24 hours and
7 days, and write the day’s bulletin from the largest volume-weighted shifts. Recurring
micro-markets (daily temperature, hourly crypto ranges) are excluded.
Probabilities are market prices, not editorial views or facts.
Nothing here is investment, legal, betting, or any other advice, nor a solicitation to trade.
Data: Polymarket public APIs. Archive .
Generated 2026-10-09 06:14 UTC.
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