What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 American League Championship Series?: 7…
Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.
Today's automated edition — the numbers, straight from the markets. The crowd's biggest repricings: Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 American League Championship Series? moved from 7% to 57% over the last 7d; Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026? moved from 34% to 79% over the last 24h; Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher? moved from 15% to 57% over the last 7d; Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026? moved from 87% to 50% over the last 24h. Full section tables below.
Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 American League Championship Series?
7.4%→57%7d
$17,178 traded · 24h
Science & Tech
Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?
34%→79%24h
$36,000 traded · 24h
Sports
Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?
15%→57%7d
$31,977 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026?
87%→50%24h
$34,232 traded · 24h
Sports
Will Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 National League Championship Series?
39%→69%7d
$17,171 traded · 24h
Science & Tech
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?
94%→71%7d
$18,643 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?
67%→50%7d
$65,810 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?
52%→36%7d
$63,153 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Markets price: Will Russia target Kyiv on...? — October 17 at 50% (-36 pts/24h); Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...? — October 31 at 24% (-10 pts/24h, +6 pts/7d).
Markets price: What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026? — 4.25% at 50% (-16 pts/24h, -17 pts/7d); Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory — Flávio Bolsonaro <4% at 36% (+12 pts/24h, -16 pts/7d).
Markets price: Anthropic IPO by __? — November 30, 2026 at 52% (-2 pts/24h, -14 pts/7d); How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? — 0 (0 bps) at 96% (+1 pts/24h).
Markets price: Gemini 4.0 released by...? — October 13 at 79% (+46 pts/24h); Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...? — October 17 at 28% (-12 pts/24h, -38 pts/7d).