Thursday, October 15, 2026GraphArchiveSubscribeDaily · No. 127

The Probable Times

What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news

Will Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 National League Championship Series?: 6…

Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.

Today's automated edition — the numbers, straight from the markets. The crowd's biggest repricings: Will Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 National League Championship Series? moved from 61% to 10% over the last 7d; Will the next governing coalition of Romania include PSD? moved from 13% to 76% over the last 7d; Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026? moved from 74% to 20% over the last 24h; Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? moved from 42% to 6% over the last 7d. Full section tables below.

Today’s biggest movesprobability shifts, volume-weighted
Sports

Will Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 National League Championship Series?

61%→ 10% 7d
$66,281 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections

Will the next governing coalition of Romania include PSD?

13%→ 76% 7d
$5,146 traded · 24h
Science & Tech

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?

74%→ 20% 24h
$8,969 traded · 24h
Sports

Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?

42%→ 6.5% 7d
$97,151 traded · 24h
Sports

Will BNK FEARX win the Demacia Cup Global Invitational 2026?

26%→ 67% 24h
$13,633 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto

StandX FDV above $50M one day after launch?

56%→ 20% 24h
$14,644 traded · 24h
Geopolitics

Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?

57%→ 26% 7d
$7,069 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections

Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?

68%→ 92% 7d
$59,974 traded · 24h

Geopolitics

Markets price: Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...? — October 31 at 26% (-8 pts/24h, -32 pts/7d); Israeli Legislative Election: 3rd Place — Together at 84% (+14 pts/24h, +22 pts/7d).

October 3126%▼ 8 24hDecember 3176%▼ 2 24hNovember 3056%▼ 4 24h
Together84%▲ 14 24hThe Democrats7.5%▼ 9 24hYashar2.5%▲ 2 24h
March 31, 202719%▲ 1 24hDecember 3110%▲ 1 7d
October 2486%▲ 3 24hOctober 2282%▲ 4 24hOctober 2586%▲ 2 24hOctober 2386%▲ 6 24h
December 3134%▼ 3 24hOctober 3111%▼ 3 24hNovember 3024%▼ 5 24h
CXMT31%▲ 16 7dCATL23%▼ 3 24hBYD8%▲ 2 24hAlibaba14%▼ 2 7d

Politics & Elections

Markets price: Which coalition will form the next Romanian government? — PSD at 76% (+48 pts/24h, +64 pts/7d); Next Prime Minister of Romania? — Luca Niculescu at 92% (+9 pts/24h, +24 pts/7d).

PSD76%▲ 48 24hOther7.1%▼ 26 24hPSD + UDMR6.4%▼ 5 24h
Luca Niculescu92%▲ 9 24h
Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8%32%▼ 12 24hFlávio Bolsonaro <4%40%▲ 7 24hLula da Silva <4%14%▲ 5 24hFlávio Bolsonaro 8-12%10%▼ 2 24h
December 3136%▲ 4 24hOctober 311.7%▼ 1 24h
December 31, 202827%▲ 12 7dDecember 31, 202714%▼ 3 24hDecember 31, 20261.9%▼ 2 7dJune 30, 20279.5%▲ 1 7d
June 30, 202710%▼ 5 24hDecember 31, 202716%▼ 5 24hDecember 31, 202824%▼ 2 24h

Economy & Crypto

Markets price: StandX FDV above ___ one day after launch? — $50M at 20% (-36 pts/24h, -33 pts/7d); Anthropic IPO by __? — November 30, 2026 at 56% (-2 pts/24h, -15 pts/7d).

$50M20%▼ 36 24h$100M18%▼ 34 24h$200M12%▼ 26 24h$400M10%▼ 4 24h
Anthropic IPO by __? $61,193 · 24h
November 30, 202656%▼ 2 24hDecember 15, 202668%▲ 2 24hDecember 31, 202672%▲ 3 24hNovember 15, 20265.5%▼ 1 24h
3 (75 bps)18%▲ 6 24h1 (25 bps)18%▼ 1 24h2 (50 bps)66%▲ 2 24h
December 31, 202928%▲ 2 24hDecember 31, 202822%▲ 2 24hDecember 31, 202714%▲ 2 24h
$1B58%▼ 6 7d$800M72%▼ 3 24h$300M93%▼ 3 24h$4B7.2%▲ 2 24h
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?82%▲ 2 24h

Science & Tech

Markets price: Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...? — October 17 at 20% (-55 pts/24h, -33 pts/7d); Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...? — December 31, 2026 at 24% (+10 pts/24h, +11 pts/7d).

October 1720%▼ 55 24hOctober 1618%▼ 41 24hOctober 1512%▼ 28 24hOctober 2474%▼ 9 24h
December 31, 202624%▲ 10 24hJanuary 31, 202726%▲ 10 24hFebruary 28, 202730%▲ 6 24hDecember 31, 202762%▲ 3 24h
December 31, 202752%▼ 3 24hDecember 31, 202614%▼ 1 24h
Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?50%

Sports

Markets price: Demacia Cup Global Invitational 2026: Winner — BNK FEARX at 67% (+42 pts/24h, +39 pts/7d); MLB: 2026 National League Champion — Los Angeles Dodgers at 10% (-20 pts/24h, -50 pts/7d).

BNK FEARX67%▲ 42 24hHANJIN BRION18%▲ 2 24hTeam WE15%▲ 1 24h
Los Angeles Dodgers10%▼ 20 24hMilwaukee Brewers90%▲ 20 24h
Los Angeles Dodgers6.5%▼ 15 24hMilwaukee Brewers57%▲ 13 24hCleveland Guardians13%▼ 1 24hTampa Bay Rays23%▲ 2 24h
Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?54%▲ 1 24h
Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 $628,201 · 24h
Lamine Yamal30%▼ 1 24hHarry Kane63%▲ 1 24hKylian Mbappé3.8%▲ 1 7dLionel Messi2.6%
Paris Saint-Germain16%▲ 3 24hManchester City5.5%▼ 1 24hBayern Munich14%▼ 1 24hBarcelona24%▲ 1 7d

Culture

Markets price: Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? — Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? at 1%.

Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?1.2%

Probabilities are the crowd's opinion of tomorrow — updated daily.

The weekly digest

The week’s biggest probability moves, in one email every Sunday. Free.