What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?: 56% → 10%
Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.
Today's automated edition — the numbers, straight from the markets. The crowd's biggest repricings: Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31? moved from 56% to 10% over the last 7d; Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? moved from 24% to 65% over the last 7d; Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? moved from 53% to 88% over the last 7d; Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? moved from 52% to 21% over the last 7d. Full section tables below.
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?
56%→10%7d
$44,686 traded · 24h
Sports
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?
24%→65%7d
$43,790 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
53%→88%7d
$45,671 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?
52%→21%7d
$74,717 traded · 24h
Sports
Will LOUD win VALORANT Champions 2026?
16%→49%7d
$6,220 traded · 24h
Culture
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 160m and 170m by October 31?
<1%→28%7d
$21,502 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
US imports Russian diesel by October 31?
32%→6.2%7d
$19,597 traded · 24h
Culture
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 40 and 60 million views on week 1?
49%→72%24h
$14,871 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Markets price: Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...? — October 31 at 10% (-6 pts/24h, -46 pts/7d); Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...? — November 30 at 21% (-8 pts/24h, -31 pts/7d).
Markets price: Next Prime Minister of Romania? — Luca Niculescu at 88% (-4 pts/24h, +35 pts/7d); Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory — Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8% at 28% (-20 pts/7d).
Markets price: Papertrade FDV above ___ one day after launch? — $250M at 44% (+2 pts/24h, +22 pts/7d); Anthropic IPO by __? — December 15, 2026 at 60% (-12 pts/24h, -13 pts/7d).
Markets price: Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...? — June 30, 2027 at 55% (+10 pts/24h, +9 pts/7d); Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...? — October 24 at 74% (-8 pts/24h, +14 pts/7d).
Markets price: # of views of Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer on week 1? — 40-60M at 72% (+22 pts/24h); "Resident Evil" total domestic gross by October 31? — 160 - 170m at 28% (+16 pts/24h, +27 pts/7d).