What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026?: 87% → 11%
Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.
Today's automated edition — the numbers, straight from the markets. The crowd's biggest repricings: Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026? moved from 87% to 11% over the last 7d; Papertrade FDV above $100M one day after launch? moved from 45% to 84% over the last 7d; Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31? moved from 34% to 5% over the last 7d; Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? moved from 33% to 63% over the last 7d. Full section tables below.
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?
34%→5.3%7d
$44,420 traded · 24h
Sports
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?
33%→63%7d
$10,309 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%?
50%→78%7d
$9,393 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?
49%→30%7d
$66,697 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?
40%→20%7d
$28,782 traded · 24h
Science & Tech
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by January 31, 2027?
16%→34%7d
$7,672 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Markets price: Will Russia target Kyiv on...? — October 17 at 11% (+2 pts/24h, -76 pts/7d); Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...? — October 31 at 5% (-3 pts/24h, -29 pts/7d).
Markets price: Alberta Independence Referendum: Margin of Victory — Remain 40–60% at 78% (+13 pts/24h, +28 pts/7d); Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory — Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8% at 30% (-1 pts/24h, -20 pts/7d).
Markets price: Papertrade FDV above ___ one day after launch? — $100M at 84% (+13 pts/24h, +38 pts/7d); Anthropic IPO by __? — November 30, 2026 at 67% (+12 pts/24h, +13 pts/7d).
Markets price: Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...? — October 24 at 76% (+12 pts/24h, +11 pts/7d); Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...? — January 31, 2027 at 34% (+18 pts/7d).
Markets price: # of views of Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer on week 1? — 60-80M at 66% (+11 pts/24h); Oscars 2027: Best Picture Winner — You Can See Everything at 17% (+2 pts/24h, +15 pts/7d).