What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026?: 94% → 11%
Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.
Today's automated edition — the numbers, straight from the markets. The crowd's biggest repricings: Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026? moved from 94% to 11% over the last 7d; Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026? moved from 82% to 4% over the last 7d; Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027? moved from 71% to 2% over the last 7d; Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? moved from 13% to 62% over the last 24h. Full section tables below.
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?
82%→4.5%7d
$10,976 traded · 24h
Science & Tech
Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?
71%→2.2%7d
$6,789 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?
13%→62%24h
$126,351 traded · 24h
Science & Tech
Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?
13%→68%7d
$8,954 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 20%-30%?
60%→12%7d
$20,445 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?
29%→66%7d
$29,650 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $10M?
54%→92%7d
$7,146 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Markets price: Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...? — October 31 at 62% (+49 pts/24h, +46 pts/7d); Will Russia target Kyiv on...? — October 17 at 11% (-2 pts/24h, -82 pts/7d).
Markets price: Total commitments for the 1win ($1w) public sale — $10M at 92% (-3 pts/24h, +39 pts/7d); How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027? — Below 5.15% at 43% (+21 pts/24h).
Markets price: Next Claude Haiku Model (4.6+): Text Arena Debut? — 1420+ at 3% (-79 pts/24h, -80 pts/7d); Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...? — October 24 at 4% (-13 pts/24h, -78 pts/7d).
Markets price: Who will attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony? — Vinícius Júnior at 70% (+51 pts/24h, +20 pts/7d); MLB World Series Champion 2026 — Tampa Bay Rays at 37% (+22 pts/7d).